Is North Korea still an Ally of China today

Is North Korea still an Ally of China today?

Abstract

China is North Korea’s largest trading partners in different commodities such as arms, energy, and food. Stability in the Korean peninsula has been considered the main interest of the Chinese. China’s continued support for North Korea guarantees an ally on its northeastern border while at the same time providing a buffer between china and South Korea, which hosts thousands of US military troops. Since the first nuclear test conducted by North Korea, the relationship between China and its perceived northern ally has continued to dwindle. According to China, the dwindling relationship has been considered to be emanating from the decision by North Korea to violate the spirit of the mutual defense treaty. North Korea, despite its atrocious activities continues to be an ally of the Chinese government due to the impending political and economic benefits that the two countries stand to gain because of their ties.

Keywords: China, North Korea, relations, attack, nuclear bombs, political, policy, economic 

Introduction

China is considered as the most important ally to North Korea. This is because China is North Korea’s largest trading partner in different commodities such as arms, energy, and food (Albert 1). Furthermore, through the help of China, North Korea has been able to sustain the political regime of Kim Jong-un by opposing harsh international sanctions aimed at collapsing the regime. Despite this flourishing relationship, North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, the rumors of hydrogen bombs and ballistic missile launches in 2016 have complicated its relationship with China (Albert 1). The relationship has been considered complicated because these nuclear tests were conducted about 50 miles from the Chinese border with North Korea making it a potential threat in the progress of China. According to experts, an anticipated defrosting of relations between South Korea and China could shift the geopolitical dynamics in East Asia and this could undermine the Sino-north Korea relations (Albert 1). However, despite North Koreas’ successive nuclear tests and the threat of the existence of a hydrogen bomb, Chinese policies towards North Korea have hardly been shifted.

Research Question and Hypothesis

Research question

What are the factors that have made it relatively difficult for China to shift its policies towards North Korea?

Hypothesis

The political risks emanating from North Korea cannot necessitate China to restructure its policy towards its neighbor. Instead, China views North Korea as an essential military buffer zone against the US in East Asia.

Literature Review

Background of Sino-North Korea relations

According to Albert (1), Chinese support for North Korea is traceable back to the Korean war of early 1950s. During the Korean War, Chinese troops under the leadership of Mao flooded the Korean peninsula in defense of its northern ally, since the end of the war China has continuously lent political and economic support to North Korean leaders Kim II Sung, Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-un (Albert 1). However, negative aspects of the relationship began in 2006 when North Korea conducted its first nuclear test and the Chinese government supported the United Nations Security Council resolution against the making and testing of nuclear weapons. The UN Security Council resolutions also introduced international sanctions against North Korea and the support of the Chinese towards these resolutions was considered a shift in tone from diplomatic relations to punishment (Hernandez 1).

According to Freeman (160) in 2013, North Korea conducted its third nuclear test. China reacted by summoning the North Korean ambassador and introducing more sanctions against its northern ally. This included a reduction in energy supplies and a call for talks on denuclearization of North Korea. Despite these signals of shifts in its relationship with Pyongyang, Beijing has continued with wide ranging relations, which include exchange of high-level political and economic trips between the two countries (Albert 1).

On separate occasions, Albert (1) argues that China has continued to stymie internationals punitive action against its northern neighbor for violation of human rights. In 2014 for instance, China criticized a UN report that had argued that the North Korean government was orchestrating crimes against humanity (Albert 1). Furthermore, Beijing attempted to block UN Security Council session in 2015 discussing the human rights situation in North Korea. Previously in March 2010, China failed to take a stance against its northern ally despite existing evidence that the country was involved in sinking a naval vessel owned by South Korea (Freeman 105).

Economic relations between China and North Korea

North Korea in the view of Freeman (150) considers China as its largest economic partner. Existing evidence indicates that trade between the two countries has been on a steady increase in the recent years. For instance in 2014, economic activities between the two countries reached $6.4 billion up from about $500 million in early 2000s (Freeman150). This has been considered as an indication of an increase in the number of goods and services exchanged by the two countries. In 2015 however, the Seoul- Based Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency reported a drop in the bilateral trade between the two countries by about 15 percent (Freeman150). It is however unclear if the drop in the trade relations was because of the strained relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang or if it was because of prevailing economic and political conditions in the Korean peninsula. Despite these speculations, there are no reasons to think that the political risks emerging from North Korea would make China withdraw its economic safety net from North Korea (Freeman 150).

China accounts for North Korea’s total trade volume since it provides the country with most of its energy supplies and food as a way of cementing their trade relations. In 2015, the two countries opened a bulk cargo and container-shipping route to boost North Korea’s export of coal products to China (Freeman 156). The realization that North Korea is continuously being isolated from the rest of the world due to international sanctions makes its dependence on China an essential tool for its economic growth. There exists a significant trade imbalance between the two countries and the emerging trade deficits have been perceived as indirect Chinese subsidy considering that North Korea cannot use borrowing as a technique of financing its trade deficits (Hernandez 1).

Other than the economic relations, China has also provided aid to North Korea in the form of food and energy. Other countries such as the United States, Japan, and China have also been engaged in the provision of aid to the country. However, aid from all countries except China has continued to shrink significantly (Albert 1). North Korea is vulnerable to drought and this explains why in 2015, the country reported its worst drought in decades with harvest sustaining serious damages. About 70 percent of North Korean pollution was designated by UN agencies as food insecure. As a way of limiting the effect of the drought, China through its ties to North Korea has continued to wean the country from pure aid in favor of more commercially feasible initiatives (Freeman 78)

Priorities of China in its relations with North Korea

Stability in the Korean peninsula has been considered as the main interest of the Chinese. China’s continued support for North Korea guarantees an ally on its northeastern border while at the same time providing a buffer between china and South Korea, which hosts thousands of US military troops ((Freeman 18). For China, stability and the avoidance of war are the greatest of its priorities. This is because stability in the region guarantees successful economic relations among its trade partners, which use the Korean peninsula as an essential trade route. Furthermore, avoidance of war also guarantees China a platform for continued political, socio-cultural, and economic development (Hernandez 1). The possibility of war in the Korean peninsula also necessitates the exodus of thousands of refugees from North Korea into China. China would prefer to avoid such a calamity on its border considering that the collapse of North Korea would destroy the strategic buffer zone created by China. In addition, it would increase the probability that the US military troops would move closer to China hence a threat to its political and economic development (Hernandez 1).

Experts in the view of Freeman (108 ) have argued that the announcement by US administration that it was considering pushing for a strategic rebalance of the Asian continent has been interpreted by the Chinese administration as an attempt by the US government to contain Beijing. This has made the Chinese government less trusting of the intentions of the United States regarding North Korea. One way by which the Chinese government has attempted to destroy the South Korea- US relations is by strengthening its relations with both Seoul and Pyongyang (Hernandez 1).

Nuclear tests and Sino- North Korea relations

Since the first nuclear test conducted by North Korea, the relationship between China and its perceived northern ally has continued to dwindle. According to China, the dwindling relationship has been considered to be emanating from the decision by North Korea to violate the spirit of the mutual defense treaty, which required the northern ally to consult Beijing on its nuclear program (Freeman 70). The decision by North Korea to act against the mutual defense treaty has been based on the country’s belief that Beijing abandoned the communist ideology and has been corrupted by the political and economic immoralities of capitalism. An additional concern for Beijing is in its resentment for North Korea’s continued provocation, which could destabilize the region by raising fears of the possibility of war (Lam et al 55). The actions of North Korea have necessitated some form of armament to strengthen the alliance of Seoul and Washington in terms of their military capabilities. Such actions in the view of Beijing could be used to threaten the country and prompt criticism from the international community against China as the primary supporter of the actions orchestrated by Pyongyang (Hernandez 1).

The future of the relationship between China and North Korea

According to Kai (1) China and North Korea share a historical relationship sealed by blood. The underlying assumption in this relationship is that Beijing has much influence over Pyongyang than the international community can observe. However, China has been reluctant in full utilization of the influence for three major reasons. First, there exists a deep mistrust between Beijing and Pyongyang because of differences in perception in terms of ideology and on the best techniques of achieving the respective national interests.  Second, other than the mistrust, Pyongyang and Beijing need each other for fulfill geopolitical interests. Third, the relationship between North Korea and china has often failed to meet expectations (Kai 1).

For effective prediction of the nature of the relationship between China and North Korea in the future, it will be important to perceive two aspects that define these countries. In matters of interstate relations, China acknowledges that the changes in the situation in East Asia have resulted in charges in the self-perception of the Chinese in terms of its position as a regional power with regard to maintaining security (Kai 1). The threat that North Korea poses with its nuclear weapons explains why China has been partially active in the implementation of sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear activities. This in the view of Beijing is a way of building a more responsible and cooperative national image on the international platform with regard to addressing security concerns. At interparty level, it will be relatively difficult for China to abandon decades of relationship with North Korea despite its unstable nature (Kai 1). Political relationship between the two countries will remain chilly but functional. This is because of its contribution to some level of balance in the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia region. China considers North Korea as a strategic partner in the realization of economic, political, and social-cultural goals and objectives at the local and international platforms (Kai 1).

Methodology

This study will use a qualitative and qualitative approach in the analysis of the development of an understanding of the nature of relationship between china and North Korea. In order to examine the effects of this relationship in the development of the two countries, this research will use an in-depth literature review process in gathering secondary data. This will be gathered from existing publications, articles, internet sources, and journals focusing on Sino- North Korea relationship. Through an in-depth analysis of this literature, it will be easier for the study to be involved in descriptive analysis of the data collected. Descriptive analysis allows for the data collected and used in understanding the nature of the current relationship and the future of the relationship between China and North Korea.

Analysis

Political policies

From a political perspective, the successful relationship between China and North Korea is founded on security concerns. This is because both countries consider the US as a threat to the stability of the region and therefore any forms of ties between the two countries provide a stronger defense mechanism against the US (Albert 1). However, the development and the test of nuclear weapons by North Korea have been considered an act of employing a political card. Furthermore, the northern ally to China is not only wielding a political card but is also using its possession of nuclear weapons as a platform of seeking a security guarantor (Park and Scott 111). China may be active in criticizing North Korea for the possession of nuclear weapons but through its ties with the northern ally the country is envisioned to benefit since the US and other potential adversaries will be deterred from the possibility of attacking the national and regional interests of both countries (Hernandez 1).

China considers North Korea as an essential buffer zone in minimizing the intentions of the US to establish its dominance in East Asia. Since opening its economy, China has continued to establish and maintain its dominance across Asia and around the world. The elimination of nuclear weapons from North Korea is considered the lowest in the interest of Chinese towards its northern ally (Glaser & Billingsley 14). Inasmuch as the Chinese government may have declared limited support for the nuclear weapons in North Korea, the country does not view the acquisition of these weapons as an existential threat to its development. This explains the decision by China to support only those strategies that advocate for the elimination of nuclear weapons in North Korea while marinating peace and stability in the region (Albert 1).

Economic polices

China considers North Korea as an essential trade partner in food and energy products. This is because the exclusion of North Korea due international sanction makes china the only reliable trade partner to the northern ally (Glaser & Billingsley 16). This makes it relatively difficult for the Chinese to consider terminating its relationship with North Korea considering that the country not only provides a ready market for its products but it also enables the Chinese government to engage in monopolization of the North Korean market (Hernandez 1).

China, through its economic initiatives in Korea has been able to establish structures aimed at making North Korea an economically viable country. This has been facilitated by continuous implementation of economic reforms that would enable the country to open its market to the international platform (Lam et al 59). For China, a prosperous North Korea would eliminate the possibility of instability along the Chinese border and provide essential developmental opportunities for the northeastern provinces in China. An additional way through which the Sino-North Koran relationship has been considered as a platform for mutual economic development is in the decisions by both countries to engage in economic exchange programs, which often seek a demonstration of the success of the economic reforms in both countries (Lam et al 60). Through such exchange, visiting Chinese leaders have been able to urge North Korean government into undertaking essential economic reform polies aimed at the development and economic stability of the country and the East Asia region (Glaser & Billingsley 22).

Interests of the United States and the Sino- North Korea relationship

There are limited similarities between the interests of the United States and those of China in the Korean peninsula. However, there exist differences in terms of the prioritization of their interests. From the perspective of the United States, the main objective lies in the denuclearization of North Korea (Hernandez 1). For the United States, its foreign policy on international security with regard to Korean peninsula is in preventing the proliferation of missile and nuclear technology to other state and non-state actors on the international platform (Park and Scott 90). For the US, any decision by North Korea to export this technology would threaten both regional and international security. Just like China, the US worries that the possession of nuclear weapons by North Korea would encourage other countries such as Japan and South Korea to develop individual nuclear deterrent techniques (Lam et al 60-61).

While China does not perceive the development of such weapons as a threat to its territorial integrity, the United States continuously considers North Korea as a threat to its dominance in the Korean peninsula. The United States in an attempt to create a stronger ally with South Korea shares the vision of the reunification of the Korean peninsula (Glaser & Billingsley 23). This in the view of the US would ensure shared prosperity, lasting peace and stability in the Korean peninsula. This however has been considered as a potential recipe for conflict in the region considering that North Korea will not only be determined to protect its territory but it would also engage in military conflict resulting in massive loss of life and property not only in Korea but in the neighboring  north eastern Chinese provinces. Furthermore, such unification also threatens the position of China in East Asia and it threatens the existing trade relations between China and North Korea (Lanʹkov 121).

The interest of the US while seeking to establish perceived lasting peace in the Korean peninsula also threatens to destabilize the region by negatively affecting already existing trade and political relations between China and North Korea (Park and Scott 111). In addition, such threats would not only destabilize the economic development in the region but also economic development within the countries (Glaser & Billingsley 18). This explains why China has been strong in opposing initiatives aimed at destabilizing North Korea. In addition, by opposing international sanctions against North Korea in the UN Security Council meetings, China has been able to demonstrate the importance of peace and stability in North Korea to the Korean peninsula and to the East Asian region (Glaser & Billingsley 20).

The role of North Korea in Sino-North Korea relations

The reign of Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong –IL have been characterized by violence and testing of nuclear weapons. North Korea has conducted a series of destabilizing activities against South Korea as a technique of establishing its dominance in the Korean peninsula following the decision by the US and South Korea to establish a military camp along the North and South Korean border (Glaser & Billingsley 10). However, the realization of the potential loss that the country faces in strained relations with its Chinese partner has necessitated the involvement of the country’s regime in diplomatic charms aimed at bolstering better international relations with China. Through these international relations initiatives, North Korea is in the process of creating more allies by focusing its policies towards china and Russia to boost its position in the Korean peninsula as an international partner (Hernandez 1).

North Korea considers China as a major source of support on the international platform. This is because by protecting the interest of North Korea, the Chinese government is often protecting its position in East Asia from the dominance of the United States. Currently, policy failure in the peninsular continues to dampen hopes of the de-escalation of the perceived tension (Glaser & Billingsley 11). As a result, Seoul, Washington and Beijing, in bid to reduce the tension have voiced solidarity concerns for the denuclearization of the north. North Korea has continued to rely on China to advocate for relatively fair approaches of handing the denuclearization program. This explains why there are differences between Washington and China on how best to handle the nuclear threat posed by North Korea without collapsing the country’s government or destabilizing the region (Hernandez 1).

For China therefore, North Korea is a platform of engaging other powers on the international scene. In addition, through this relationship China advocates for its interests while promoting its dominance in East Asia (Lanʹkov 121). This explains why for China to ensure that it is involved in effective establishment of its interest in the stability and denuclearization of North Korea it must improve on its relationship with the northern ally as a way of restoring advantage in the region (Freeman 168).

Findings and Conclusions

North Korea may have strained its relationship with China through its nuclear test, but the relationship between the two countries is bound to prosper due to the prevailing political situation in the Korean peninsula. The United States is considered a threat to the political stability of North Korea and development in China. Therefore, the presence of the United States in South Korea and its continued efforts to reunite Korea threatens the existence of North Korea and the dominance of China in East Asia. An effective Sino-North Korea relationship will guarantee China a buffer zone against the political dominance of the United States in the Asian region. In addition, by advocating for and protecting the interest of North Korea on the international platform, china ensures the political stability and peace in North Korea and in the East Asia region.

Economically both china and North Korea are engaged in bilateral trade relations. China acquires coal from North Korea wile north Korea acquires food and energy products from China. Harsh international sanctions against North Korea have made it highly dependent on the Chinese market for economic growth and development. For China, high dependence by the North Korean government provides it with a stable and guaranteed market for its food and energy products.

The foreign policy of China towards North Korea is defined by the underlying political and economic benefits provided by the country. Through its foreign policy, China has developed a system enhancing economic reforms in North Korea with the objective of improving on the country’s level for self-reliance and expansion of its markets to the international world as a way of opening markets for its northeastern province. North Korea, despite its atrocious activities continues to be an ally of the Chinese government due to the impending political and economic benefits that the two countries stand to gain because of their ties.

Works cited

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Relations, 2016. Retrieved form http://www.cfr.org/china/china-north-korea-relationship/p11097

Freeman, Carla P. China and North Korea: Strategic and Policy Perspectives from a Changing

China. , 2015. Internet resource.

Glaser, Bonnie & Billingsley, Brittany. Reordering Chinese Priorities on the Korean

Peninsula.A Report of the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, 2015

Hernandez , Javier. North Korea’s Hydrogen Bomb Claim Strains Ties with China. Asian

Pacific: New York times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-china-hydrogen-test.html?_r=0

Lam, Peng E, Yaqing Qin, and Mu Yang. China and East Asia: After the Wall Street Crisis. New

Jersey: World Scientific, 2013. Print.

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